Global Warming News from Alaska
December 21, 2007
Reporting from The Front Line

Dear Friends,

This year ended with a crescendo. Congress passed an important Energy Bill, which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Bali, the international community agreed to proceed forward with negotiations to reduce future emissions. And, there were many important technological and other advances announced.

Unfortunately, all of this took place against the backdrop of new, dire global warming statistics from the Arctic. As Dr. Serreze noted, “The Arctic is screaming.” Teams of scientists announced numerous study results at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) annual meeting, where Alaska and the rest of the Arctic took center stage. This month we, and the rest of the world, learned about dramatically warmer Arctic waters, substantially less Arctic ice, warmer permafrost, increased melting rates, crushed walruses, and more. The compelling evidence continues to mount.

Clearly, we need to make much more progress in achieving emission reductions in 2008.

Alaska and Arctic Global Warming News - The Latest Evidence and Developments

Projected Loss of the Arctic Ice Cap by 2013, “The Arctic is Screaming,” and other Alarming Global Warming Scientific Statements and Results from the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting

The American Geophysical Union held their annual meeting in San Francisco this month. Several new studies highlighted the extreme seriousness of global warming in the Arctic. For two outstanding overview articles, see AP 12/11/07 and BBC 12/16/07.

• Arctic Ice Cap Loss Projections. Dr. Maslowski from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey California, and his team of scientists from NASA and elsewhere, revealed their latest model, which projects that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in the summer by 2013 (BBC 12/12/07). Unlike other models, this one more realistically factors in the movement of warm waters into the Arctic basin.
• Arctic Ice Cap Documented Declines. Because of losses in both thickness and surface area, the volume of ice in the Arctic ice cap in 2007 was approximately 50% less than in 2004 (AP 12/11/07; Herald 12/13/07). Astounding. Ice that is nine or more years has “essentially disappeared” notes Dr. Maslanik (National Geographic News 12/14/07). There was a decrease in fall ice growth by almost three feet. In the Beaufort Sea, a 3.3 meter-thick slab of perennial ice was reduced to only 0.5 meters, particularly due to melting from the bottom that was 5 times greater than expected (BBC 12/16/07).
• Warmer Arctic Ocean Temperatures. University of Washington scientists disclosed data showing the warmest surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean ever recorded. In some locations, temperatures were 5 °C above normal (University of Washington 12/12/07). The ocean north of Alaska and Eastern Siberia experienced the greatest summer warming, generally 3.5 °C warmer than historical averages and 1.5 °C warmer than ever recorded.
• Deep Permafrost Warming in Alaska. University of Alaska's Vladimir Romanovsky presented a paper showing a significant warming of the permafrost 66 feet below the surface. At the two northernmost monitoring sites in Alaska, there was nearly a 0.4 °F warming of this deep permafrost between 2006 and 2007 (Personal correspondence with Dr. Romanovsky).
• Ptarmigans. One session at AGU examined the relationships among global warming, willows and ptarmigans. Willows are now growing fast enough to “beat the ptarmigans” (RealClimate 12/13/07).
• Greenland Melting Records Broken. Two Greenland records were broken this year. More surface ice was lost than ever before – 12% more than the previous low. Also, more ice by volume melted – 15% more than the annual average summer melt.
• “The Arctic is Screaming.” One of the leading snow and ice scientists in the world, Dr. Mark Serreze with the US Snow and Ice Data Center, summarized the latest results poignantly: “The Arctic is screaming.” Another scientist, Dr. Perovich, from the US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory noted, “It's basically the fourth quarter, and we're down two touchdowns….As you go farther down this (global warming) path, it becomes harder to come back.”

Walruses Stampede Deaths

Due to the lack of Arctic sea ice this summer, tens of thousands of walruses were forced on land in Russia, resulting in thousands of stampede deaths (Associated Press 12/14/07).

• According to Russian scientists, the stampede deaths occurred because the walruses had to huddle in haulouts in high concentrations, where they are easily startled. At one site, there were herds as large as 40,000.
• Walrus calves and elder walruses, in particular, were crushed to death as a result of the stampedes.
• “The reason is global warming,” states Russian biologist Kochnev.

Kenai Open Wetlands Shrinking at Increasing Rate

In an excellent article, Alaska's Ed Berg and Kacy McDonnell have examined the accelerating loss of open wetlands in the Kenai Peninsula (Refuge Notebook Article 12/7/07).

• The study involved digitalizing and then comparing aerial photos from 1951, 1968, and 1996.
• The aerial photos “show a drying landscape, especially between 1968 and 1996.” This is due to warmer weather and a decrease in available water because of increased rates of evaporation and transpiration.
• The scientists calculated that the average water balance for 1944-1967 was 3.9 inches of water, while the average balance for 1968-2005 was only 1.2 inches, a 70% decline.
• The loss of open wetlands means, among other impacts, a decline in fuel breaks for fires.

Global Warming Claims Alaska National Defense Sites

According to the Pentagon, they will be closing three North American Aerospace Defense Command early-warming radar sites in Alaska, due entirely or in part to the fact that global warming is undermining the foundation for these facilities (New York Times Blog 12/7/07).

• The radar site at Point Lonely has been specifically shut down because of soil erosion on Alaska's North Slope coast due to climate change.
• Two other sites on Alaska's coast are being closed for both erosion and budgetary reasons.

Other Alaska and Arctic Developments and Items of Note

• Canadian Boreal Forests Are Critical Carbon Sinks. According to a new set of maps, Canada's boreal forest sequesters approximately twice as much carbon per unit area as tropical forests (Edmontonjournal.com 12/7/07). Throughout the world, including Alaska, boreal forests store an estimated 186 billion tons of carbon, or 22% of the total land storage.
• New Alaska Climate Web Site. The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy has launched a new, interesting web site that features Alaska's monthly weather and climate highlights. To access the web site, click here.
• Ribbon Seal Petition Filed. Because global warming is destroying sea ice in the Bering, Chukchi, and Okhotsk Seas, the Center for Biological Diversity has filed a 91-page petition with the National Marine Fisheries Service to list ice-dependent ribbon seals as threatened or endangered (Associated Press 12/17/07). Ribbon seals give birth and nurse cubs exclusively on sea ice, and also molt on ice.
• Grant Monies Available for Alaska Alternative Energy and Energy-Efficiency Projects. For rural Alaska, the Denali Commission is providing $4 million in grants for alternative energy projects and $4.4 million in grants for energy-efficiency projects (Associated Press 12/15/07). The Alaska Energy Authority is providing up to $1 million in additional grants for alternative energy projects anywhere in Alaska. To access the Request for Proposals information for alternative energy grants, click here; for energy efficiency grants, click here.
• Homer Climate Action Plan Adopted. On December 12th, the Homer City Council approved an outstanding climate action plan that “was developed in recognition of the serious threat that global climate change poses not only to our beautiful community but to the global community.” The plan addresses the background, potential consequences, opportunities, policies and ethics surrounding global warming. To review the Homer's Climate Action Plan, click here. Congratulations and thank you to all of the citizens who volunteered their time creating this plan.
• Another Alaska City Signs the Mayor Climate Protection Agreement. On December 18th, Sitka Mayor Marko Dapcevich signed the US Conference of Mayor Climate Protection Agreement, committing the City of Sitka to meet or exceed Kyoto Protocol's target of a 7% greenhouse gas reduction from 1990 levels by 2012. Well done!

Key National News

Congress Passes Energy Conservation/Emissions Reduction Bill

Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (H.R.6), which has numerous outstanding features, but also left many important provisions on the cutting room floor (ENS 12/14/07).

• Most significantly, the legislation increases automobile fuel efficiency standards for the first time in over 30 years. By 2020, the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards will be 35 miles per gallon (mpg). They are now 27.5.
• Other features of the legislation include: increasing the use of biofuels (a five-fold increase); energy savings through improved efficiency standards for lighting and appliances; energy savings in buildings and industry; research and development programs for solar energy, geothermal energy, and marine energy; international energy programs; an energy efficiency and renewable energy worker training program; energy transportation and infrastructure funding options; and small business energy programs.
• To achieve 60 votes in the Senate (to overcome a filibuster), several important provisions were eliminated, including the Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) requirement and the tax package, which would have funded production tax credit extensions for renewable energy and other renewable energy advances. Hopefully, these provisions will be included in other bills going forward.
• Senator Stevens and Senator Murkowski both voted for the final bill. Senator Murkowski voted for the precursor bill that included the tax package (thank you!). Neither Senator voted for the first bill with RES standards in it. Both Senators authored provisions of the bill like the Renewable Energy Deployment Grant program (See Murkowski Press Release 12/14/07).
• Thanks to everyone who contacted Congress in support of the Energy bill!

Economy Wide Cap and Trade Global Warming Legislation Advances in the Senate, In Addition to Other Legislation

Several pieces of global warming legislation passed out of committee this month, most notably the Climate Security Act, co-sponsored by Senator Lieberman and Senator Warner.

• The Climate Security Act. Employing an economy-wide cap and trade system, this legislation mandates a 70% cut below 2005 levels in greenhouse gas emissions in regulator sectors (S. 2191; New York Times 12/6/07).
• Other pieces of legislation of note that passed out of Committee include: Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Act of 2007 (S.1581); the Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007 (S.2307); and the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2007 (S.2355).

EPA Rejects California's Tighter Vehicle Emission Standards

EPA denied California's petition to set stricter vehicle emission standards (New York Times 12/19/07). California's proposed rule, which has also been adopted by 12 other states, would require a 30% reduction in vehicle emissions by 2016.

• One commentator noted, “This decision is like pulling over the fire trucks on their way to the blaze. For 40 years, EPA administrators have recognized the important role that California plays in innovating new standards to fight pollution.”
• Earlier in the month, another federal court ruled that EPA and California had the authority to regulate emissions from vehicles.

New Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Emission Capture Developments at Year's End

Exciting and promising new technologies are being unveiled every week, providing even greater hope that needed emission reductions can be achieved:

• Waste Heat Recovery. The company Recycled Energy Development estimates that recovering waste heat from factories could produce 14% of our nation's electric power (Orion Magazine Nov-Dec /07).
• Turning Algae Into Fuel. Because some algae contains almost 50% oil, researchers are working on finding economical ways to turn it into biodiesel and jet fuel (Associated Press 12/2/07). Algae requires less space, and grows more quickly, than conventional crops like corn, and it can be located virtually anywhere and potentially use sea water or sewage water. Royal Dutch Shell announced that it will be building a pilot facility in Hawaii to create biodiesel from algae (Planet Ark 12/12/07).
• Turning CO₂ Into Baking Soda. A company has announced a system that uses waste heat to turn smokestack carbon dioxide into marketable baking soda (Popular Science 11/30/07). The company, Skyonic, has already installed a pilot project at a utility in Texas.
• Marine Energy. For an excellent article about the status of renewable energy from wave energy, see New York Times 12/8/07.
• Energy Efficiency. Energy experts at McKinsey and Company have issued a report detailing how the US could readily reduce its emissions by 28%, at a modest cost (New York Times 11/30/07). According to one of the authors, “What the report calls out is the fact that the potential is so substantial for energy efficiency…the potential is just staggering.” To achieve this potential will “require strong, coordinated, economy wide action that begins in the near future.”
• We are the People. For a wonderfully optimistic and delightful article about MIT students and others who are pushing the technological envelope see Thomas Friedman 12/2/07. MIT students have launched an international effort to design a car with a “95% reduction in embodied energy, materials and toxicity” from cradle to grave and deliver 200 mpg or better. Their tag line is “We are the people we have been waiting for.”
• Climate Action Plan. The University of Colorado, Denver, has prepared a 177 page action plan for the next president's first 100 days in office, with numerous excellent energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other recommendations. To see the Presidential Climate Action Project plan, including such proposals as a 10-fold rise in Weatherization Assistance Program spending to insulate the homes of poor families, click here.

In Brief – Other National News of Note

More Ocean Acidity Concerns Raised. In an excellent article, scientists note that oceans could be 150% more acidic by the end of the century, having already increased in acidity by 30% since the Industrial Revolution due to CO₂ emissions (McClatchy 12/16/07). Notably, because “older water” upwells in the North Pacific, there is 10% more CO₂ in the Pacific than in the Atlantic. Corrosive water has been measured off the continental shelf of Alaska, Oregon and Washington 600 to 700 feet deep. Internationally, scientists published a report in the journal Science observing that in less than 50 years, the ocean could become too acidic for corals to survive or build reefs (Associated Press 12/16/07; Science Daily 12/14/07). As one scientist noted, “Unless we take action soon there is a real possibility that coral reefs, and everything that depends on them, will not survive this century” (Reuters 12/13/07).

Report Issued Regarding White House Interference on Global Warming. Following a 16-month investigation involving 27,000 documents, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee reached the “inescapable” conclusion that “the Bush Administration has engaged in a systematic effort to manipulate climate change science, and mislead policy makers and the public about the dangers of global warming.” To review the 38-page report, click here (see also, McClatchy 12/10/07; Christian Science Monitor 12/12/07).

Impacts of Global Warming on Duck Hunting Examined. The New York Times published an insightful story on the impacts of global warming on duck habitat and duck hunting (New York Times 12/11/07). As one duck hunter noted, “People say it's cycles, every five to seven years, but it's just been too long…It's a wake-up call.”

Another Major Company Abandons Coal Power Plant Plans. PacifiCorp abandoned its plans to construct any new coal plants within the next 10 years, noting that the proposals were “no longer viable options.” It observed that accurate cost projections and risk assessments for coal plants is “futile” (Oregonian 12/7/07). According to the company, “absent some change in conditions, it cannot be determined at this time whether new coal generation ownership will satisfy the least-cost, least-risk standards that would enable us to consider it as a viable option in our 10 year plans.” Also, on a related note, James Hansen with NASA, stated that the irreversible effects of global warming might still be avoided if the world stopped using coal-fired power plants (Bloomberg 12/14/07).

Handy Global Warming Litigation Chart Available. The law firm Arnold & Porter has produced an elegant, informative, and extensively linked global warming litigation chart that lists key law suits by category. To see it, click here.

Rhode Island Proposes Sea Level Rise Regulations. Rhode Island has proposed regulations that require consideration of future global warming caused sea level rise in planning decisions (to see the proposed rule, click here). After a series of findings, the proposed regulations state “Accordingly, for planning and management purposes, it is the Council's policy to accommodate a rate of expected 3 to 5 foot rise in sea level by 2100 in the siting, design, and implementation of public and private coastal activities and to insure proactive stewardship of coastal ecosystems under these changing conditions. This long term sea level change will be revisited by the Council periodically to address new scientific evidence.”

Increase in Severe Storm Predicted. According to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, some locations in the nation could experience a doubling of the number of days of severe thunderstorms (USA Today 12/17/07). Severe thunderstorms are characterized by wind gusts 58 mph or faster, or hail that is 0.75 inches in diameter or larger, or thunderstorms accompanied by tornados.

Book and Website News. Need some laughs? Consider ordering “101 Funny Things about Global Warming” (Bloomsbury USA, January 2008), a collection of global warming cartoons. Looking for a present for a youth? Scholastic has published “The Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming” by Laurie David and Cambria Gordon. Finally, for an excellent website, see www.DailyClimate.org.

Key International News

Bali – Much More to Do

The international community met in Bali to negotiate the world's next steps in addressing global warming, with representatives from 187 countries in attendance (UN Website). Over 10,000 people participated.

• After being booed and chastised, the United States agreed to language that describes a negotiations framework for the next two years, which is designed to lead to a post-2012 international agreement on global warming action (Bali Action Plan; BBC 12/15/07; Times 12/16/07). No specific reduction targets were included.
• The roadmap does express “a shared vision” for “a long-term global goal for emission reductions” with “consideration of” “measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives.”
• Congressman Markey called the Bali agreement, “a modest but important road map” (CNN 12/15/07). An official with Christian Aid said the agreement “lacks signposts and there is no agreed destination” (Telegraph 12/17/07).
• The UN has created an adaptation fund to assist poor countries in coping with global warming (SciDev.net 12/14/07).
• Businesses Support Mandatory, International Reductions. Prior to Bali, 150 international companies such as Coca-Cola, DuPont, Nike and GE, signed a communiqué stating “a sufficiently ambitious, international and comprehensive, legally-binding United Nations agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will provide business with the certainty it needs to scale up global investment in low-carbon technologies” (University of Cambridge 11/30/07). And, “As business leaders, it is our belief that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs of not acting.”

Australia Signs Kyoto Protocol

Shortly after being sworn in as the new prime minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd ratified the Kyoto treaty, leaving the United States as the only first-world nation that has not signed the protocol (Telegraph 12/3/07).

• This was the first official act of the new Australian government.

In Brief – Other International News of Note

The Importance of Trees. A new study from the University of Helsinki concludes that planting more trees could cut Europe's CO₂ emissions by 10 - 15% by 2020 (Telegraph 11/29/07). “Every year, the expanding European forests remove a surprisingly large amount of carbon from the atmosphere.” Also, Norway will spend more than $500 million a year to protect the world's endangered rainforests (VOA News 12/10/07). Finally, the World Bank is creating a new multi-million dollar fund, called the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, to compensate developing countries for protecting their forests (Environment News Service 12/11/07).

Mongolian Permafrost Melting. In the past seven years, permafrost has thinned by 3 to 6 feet in parts of Mongolia, according to Japanese scientists (Earthweek 11/30/07).

Ocean Fertilization Questioned. Scientists at Stanford University and Oregon State University have discovered a flaw in using ocean fertilization as a carbon sink (Science Daily 11/30/07). They found that less carbon actually sinks to deep water during plankton blooms than during the rest of the year.

Correlation between Nuclear Plants and Childhood Cancer. German scientists have documented a relationship between a child's residential proximity to a nuclear power plant and a higher risk of developing cancer (Reuters 10/12/07).

Red Cross Highlights Increased Natural Disasters from Global Warming. The International Red Cross announced that global warming helped cause a record number of natural disasters this year, almost 20% more than last year (AFP 12/12/07). During the last ten years, disasters have increased by 40% from the previous decade.

China Produces Hybrid Cars. China's government-owned automobile company has started making hybrid cars, the first Chinese automaker to do so (Reuters 12/15/07).

Green Jobs – Net Gains. According to a preliminary UN report, global warming will generate more green jobs than the loss of jobs elsewhere in the economy. Already hundreds of thousands of green jobs have been created. For example 150,000 people are employed in solar heating in China (Reuters 12/6/07). On a related note, firms and individuals throughout the world are reaping benefits from green industries. One solar wafer entrepreneur in China, at age 32, is worth $4.4 billion (Reuters 12/12/07).

Upcoming Events and Other Announcements

January 8

• What: Global Warming Working Group
• Where: Northern Alaska Environmental Center, Fairbanks  
• When: Noon - 1:30pm
• More Info: Join this action-oriented group to work on Global Warming issues relevant to Interior Alaska. Bring a lunch!

January 16-18

• What: Climate Change: Science and Environment Conference sponsored by the National Council for Science and the Environment
• Where: Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, Washington, DC
• More Info: Visit the NCSE website for more information. 

February 2

• What: Recycling Task Force meeting
• Where: UAF's Wood Center ballroom
• When: 1:00 pm - 3:00 pm  
• More Info: FNSB Assemblyman, Mike Musick, has scheduled a public meeting to discuss the prospect of moving Fairbanks toward a more “sustainable” lifestyle that reduces the public waste stream and protects the environment. 

In reflecting upon 2007, I believe we can all be proud of what was accomplished and what we contributed to those accomplishments. In all likelihood, we each did one or more of the following this year: reduced our individual carbon footprints, helped our work places or friends reduce theirs; contacted our elected officials about the Energy Bill, cap and trade legislation, or state and local action; wrote letters to the editor; gave global warming presentation; talked to others about global warming and/or sent this monthly report to others! Thank you.

Individually and collectively we are making a difference; and we will make even a greater difference in 2008. We must.

Happy holidays!

With hope and determination,
Deborah

Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
dlwilliams@gci.net
http://www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com/
907-929-9370

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