Alaska Conservation Solutions

Dear Friends,

Throughout most of the world, temperatures and fossel fuel prices remain high. Globally, we experienced our eighth hottest May and June since records began in 1880. And, oil and gas prices are straining our economy. Going forward, will we meaningfully address global warming, despite rising fuel prices? We must. As the US Army and so many others recognize, diminishing our carbon footprint saves money, lives, and our future.

This monthly report underscores the urgency of action, as we continue to witness a broad and pervasive spectrum of impacts, from increased economic and health costs to dying forests and penguin chicks. This report also emphasizes the opportunities associated with addressing the causes of global warming. It is critical that our elected officials and candidates understand this.

Alaska and Arctic Global Warming News
The Latest Evidence and Developments

Ice and Weather

A sizeable piece of the Arctic ice shelf broke off in late July, as dramatic changes continue.

• Ice Shelf Loss: Approximately eight square miles of ice broke away from the Ward Hunt Ice Sheet at Ellesmere Island (BBC 7/30/08). According to scientists, "The rate we are losing ice is phenomenal. This (climate change) is real…I think a lot of people don't understand how fast things are changing up here" (The Star 7/30/08). Another scientist noted, "these ice shelves aren't re-generating."
• Overall Arctic Ice Sheet. The Arctic Ice Sheet is smaller than its average extent between 1979 and 2000, but larger than last year's record minimum (to see the status, click here). The distribution of the ice is also different than last year: "for example, in mid-July 2007, a large area of the southern Beaufort Sea north of Alaska still had ice; this year, it is already ice-free."
• Causation. A Norwegian scientist has completed a study demonstrating that "ninety percent…of the decreasing sea-ice extent is empirically 'accounted for' by the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere" (Reuters 7/30/08).
• And Then There is the Weather. In the spirit of full disclosure, it is appropriate to note that Anchorage and other parts of Alaska have experienced a cool summer (Anchorage Daily News 7/24/08). With tongues set firmly in their cheeks, some have "thanked" Alaska Conservation Solutions for "solving the global warming problem." "If only." In fact, Anchorage's cool temperatures this summer are primarily a function of La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and do not reflect the overall global warming trend. As noted above, the combined average global land and ocean surface temperatures for both May and June 2008 ranked eighth warmest for those months since worldwide records began in 1880 (NOAA (June); NOAA (May). So while parts of Alaska have been cool due to area-specific cyclical conditions, the world overall continues to experience higher temperatures consistent with global warming. To see a fact sheet prepared by Alaska Conservation Solutions on this topic, click here.

Other Alaska, Arctic and Antarctic Developments and Items of Note

• Polar Fish Facing Extinction. "Some 50 species of commercial fishes that live at or near the poles will likely go extinct" due to global warming, according to a new scientific analysis (ScienceNOW 7/10/08). In a separate study, scientists have found that warmer water affects sex ratios in some fish; "a rise in water temperature of just 1.5 degrees Celsius can change the male-to-female ratio from 1:1 to 3:1 (Time 7/30/08).
• Soaked Antarctic Penguin Chicks Dying. Antarctica experienced five days of unusual torrential rains, soaking penguin chicks not yet equipped with water-repellent feathers. When the temperatures dipped below freezing at night, many of the chicks froze - "thousands of them" (National Geographic 7/2/08; Mail Online 7/12/08). Noted one explorer, "having day after day of rain in Antarctica is a totally new phenomenon. As a result, penguins are literally freezing to death…watching penguins walking among the skeletons of their young is the most powerful evidence of climate change I have seen." Global warming is having other adverse impacts on penguins, including the colony featured in March of the Penguins, as their habitat is adversely affected.
• Request for Information on Accelerating Renewable Energy in Alaska Villages. The Department of Energy (DOE) is requesting information "from all parties interested in transforming the energy supply in rural/remote Alaska from fossil fuel-based to indigenous renewable energy resources to meet the heat, power, and transportation needs of Alaska Native villages." Due date: August 31. For questions click http://e-center.doe.gov; for the actual Request, click here.
• Potential Elimination of Motor Fuels Tax and Large "Surplus" Distribution Proposed and Criticized. On July 1, Governor Palin issued an Executive Proclamation asking the legislature to consider several items in special session, including suspending Alaska's motor fuel tax (currently the smallest in the nation) and giving each Alaskan $1,200 (in addition to the approximately $2,000 permanent fund check Alaskans will receive in October). The legislature is currently holding hearing on these matters. To see Alaska Conservation Solutions' critiques of these provisions, including numerous quotes from news articles and editorials, click here. As Senator Murkowski notes, "unless Alaska wants to risk conditioning its citizens to expect ever rising state energy handouts, the only prudent course is to convert the current oil-fed windfall into new renewable power sources that will pay dividends for decades" (Juneau Empire 7/13/08).
• Adding More Fuel to the Fire. The US Geological Survey has now estimated that 90 billion barrels of undiscovered, but technically recoverable oil, exist north of the Arctic Circle (representing 22% of the projected world's total of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas). Furthermore, USGS believes that 30 billion barrels are in the "Arctic Alaskan Province" (Anchorage Daily News 7/24/08). If developed, this represents extensive new greenhouse gas emissions, and there is no known technology to clean up spills on broken ice. In addition, seas are likely to become rougher (Reuters 7/25/08).
• Adverse Impacts on Water Supplies and Infrastructure. Some Canadian Arctic communities are experiencing or anticipating drinking water shortages because of climate change (CBC 7/24/08). With respect to infrastructure, "Climate change is making Canadian roads, water supplies, sewer systems and government building more vulnerable to multibillion-dollar failures that place human health and safety at risk, warms a new national engineering assessment" (Canwest 7/31/08).
• Juneau Still Experiencing Less Energy Demand. As noted in past monthly reports, Juneau was able to reduce its demand for electricity by over 30% after an avalanche cut off the city's inexpensive hydroelectric power. A month after the inexpensive power was restored, Juneau has maintained a demand reduction of 13% (Associated Press 7/17/08). It can be done.

Alaska and Arctic in the News

Among numerous other July news stories and commentaries about Alaska and the Arctic, we especially recommend the following:

• Alaskan Communities and Ecosystems at Risk. There were several outstanding stories regarding Alaska's communities and ecosystems at greatest risk. NPR's Elizabeth Arnold examined the adaptation approaches taken by the communities Newtok and Kivalina. To hear her excellent story, featured on Day-to-Day, click here. Also, the News Hour produced a thoughtful exploration of Shishmaref's and Kivalina's plight (News Hour 7/10/08). Finally, the Harvard Law Bulletin published a story highlighting both ecosystem and indigenous culture impacts from climate change in Alaska, global warming's frontline (Harvard Law Bulletin Summer 2008).
• Warming Changes. An excellent article in the Kansas City Star examined some climate change research that is taking place in Northern Alaska at Toolik Field Station, 150 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (Kansas City Star 7/27/08). As one researcher noted, "the rate of change is alarming…Species can't adapt or keep up in an evolutionary sense because everything is happening so fast." "The changes are all happening faster than the models had predicted," noted another scientist. Even at more than 160 feet below ground, temperatures have increased about 1.5 degrees. In a separate article in the Guardian, some of the impacts from global warming on lakes in the Toolik Field Station are explored (Guardian7/22/08). For example, as one scientist noted, the "thermokarsts (collapsing banks) are getting bigger in the lakes…it seems to be such a rapid process."
• Alaska Global Warming Overview. The Fairbanks Daily News Miner published an excellent global warming overview series (News Miner 7/27/08; 7/26; 7/29). As Dr. Glenn Juday noted in the 7/29 article, "No matter what you do, or what interest you have in this part of the world, it's very likely to be affected (by climate change)." The boreal forest is especially at risk. "If temperatures rise as climate models predict, Juday figures all three boreal forest species could be eliminated from vast portions of the Interior by the end of the century." Melting permafrost is also killing some trees by drowning them, according to Dr. Terry Chapin. Finally, the series did an outstanding job explaining the basics of global warming. To see the explanation, click here.

Key National News

Positive Visions and Plans for a Sustainable Nation and World

To reach ambitious goals, you must have ambitious visions. In July, several national leaders issued proactive visions for a sustainable, low-carbon nation and world.

• Al Gore Calls for Carbon-Free Electricity by 2018. Noting that, "We're borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the planet," Al Gore is challenging the nation to change "every bit" of that equation. "Today I challenge our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years." "The survival of our nation as we know it is at risk" (New York Times 7/18/08; BBC 7/18/08; Bob Herbert, New York Times, 7/19/08). To see a copy of Gore's speech, click here.
• Lester Brown Outlines Plan to Reduce Emissions 80% by 2020. In a report entitled, "Time for Plan B: Cutting Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2020," the President of the Earth Policy Institute has outlined a series of critical strategies. To see the report, click here.

Renewable Energy Legislation Continues to be Blocked by Partisan Votes in Senate

The latest effort to extend much needed renewable energy tax credits has failed (Associated Press 7/30/08). As the AP story notes, "For the fourth time this summer Republicans stopped the Senate from taking up wide-ranging legislation that extends tax breaks for….an array of renewable energy." This represents another setback for the nation and our crucial renewable energy future.

• The Legislation. The newest legislation was entitled, "Jobs, Energy, Families, and Disaster Relief Act of 2008" (S.3335).
• The Vote. The vote was 51- 43. Sixty votes were needed to overcome the filibuster (to see the votes, click here).
• Alaska Senators. Neither Senator Stevens nor Senator Murkowski voted to end the filibuster; so they, in essence, voted "no" on extending the renewable energy tax credits in this legislative context.

EPA Delays Action on Addressing Global Warming, and Other Developments

• Action Delayed. As readers of this monthly report know, in April 2007 the US Supreme Court ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency was required to assess whether carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten human health and welfare, in order to determine whether GHGs should be regulated under the Clean Air Act. Subsequently, in December, EPA issued a document stating that there is "compelling and robust" evidence that GHGs endanger public welfare and that EPA is "required by law" to act. Despite this, EPA has now announced that they need to seek additional public comments on whether the government should regulate GHGs, and have issued a 588-page document for review (Washington Post 7/12/08). Of note, the preamble to the rule makes it clear that the Bush Administration believes using the Clean Air Act to regulate GHGs is inappropriate; and several federal department heads signed a letter stating that there were "enormous – and we believe, insurmountable – burdens, difficulties, and costs, and likely limited benefits, of using the Clean Air Act to regulate GHG emissions." EPA's action has been called an "abdication" (New York Times 7/13/08).
• And, Yet, EPA Issues Report on "Substantial" Human Health and Welfare Impacts from GHGs. This month EPA also issued a report describing the serious human health and welfare impacts from climate change and GHG emissions due to more floods and droughts, sea level rise, more disease-carrying organisms, more allergens, more respiratory illnesses and lung disease, and more heat waves and wildfires (to see the 283-page report, click here; Reuters 7/14/08; Washington Post 7/18/08). The report notes that "climate change, interacting with changes in land use and demographics, will affect important human dimensions in the United States, especially those related to human health, settlements, and welfare."
• And, EPA Connects Global Warming to Worsening Smog. In a draft report, EPA has stated that "climate change has the potential to produce significant increases in near-surface (ozone) concentrations in many areas of the United States" (to see a copy of the report, click here; Associated Press 7/10/08). The smog season is also likely to stretch further into the spring and fall.
• Impact of the White House on EPA. To review the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming's report examining the role of the oil industry and the White House on EPA, click here.
• Finally, Voluntary EPA Programs Deemed Insufficient. The EPA's Inspector General's Office has issued a report concluding that voluntary pollution-reduction programs have "a limited potential" to reduce GHGs (Associated Press 7/25/08). Convincing companies to expend money on optional activities "presents a significant challenge to using voluntary programs as the current solution to reducing greenhouse gases."

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency – Latest Developments

Some of the latest, positive developments designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions include:

• California Adopts Green Building Code and More. California is the first state to adopt a Green Building Code. Among other features, the code mandates that all new construction reduce energy consumption by 15% (ENN 7/21/08). Also this month, Governor Schwarzenegger introduced a Green Building Initiative (Executive Order S-20_04) requiring state agencies to reduce by 20% energy consumption in all state-owned buildings by 2015. Furthermore, new or remodeled state buildings must meet minimum requirements for LEED Silver certification.
• BLM Ends Moratorium on New Solar Projects. In response to a considerable amount of negative feedback, the Bureau of Land Management has lifted their moratorium on new solar projects, and is now accepting and processing new applications for projects on public lands (New York Times 7/3/08). The moratorium had been set in June (New York Times 6/27/08).
• Hawaii Requires Solar Water Heaters. Starting in 2010, according to a new law, all new homes in Hawaii must have solar water heaters, with some limited exceptions (Associated Press 6/28/08).
• $4.93 Billion Wind Project Approved. Texas has approved a $4.93 billion transmission line for wind generation (New York Times 7/19/08). "This project will almost put Texas ahead of Germany in installed wind," notes the director of the West Texas Wind Energy Consortium. A separate story explores numerous job opportunities associated with wind energy in the Pacific Northwest (Seattle Times 7/27/08).
• Army to Cut Its Carbon Bootprint Significantly. The US Army has announced that it intends to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 30% by 2015 (Reuters 7/27/08). The nation will be saving money from this. In the past, for example, the Army spent $400,000 to build mock village training ranges. Now these mock villages are made of recycled shipping containers and only cost $25,000. Furthermore, carbon consumption reductions will save lives. For example, insulating tents at battle sites reduces energy loss by 45%. When less fossil fuel is needed in battle sites, there will be fewer convoys, which means fewer lost lives.

In Brief – Other National News of Note

Global Warming "Bottom Line Will Be Red." The University of Maryland and the National Conference of State Legislatures have issued a series of studies entitled, "State Economic and Environmental Costs of Climate Change," which examine the economic impacts from global warming on eight states (CO, NJ, OH, NV Mich, Ill, Geo, Kan). (Science Daily 7/25/08). "The trend is very clear for these eight states and the nation as a whole: climate change will cost billions in the long run and the bottom line will be red;" and "Inaction or delayed action will make the ink run redder." To see the report, click here. To see a list of state impact summaries, click here.

Global Warming and Kidney Stones. According to a new scientific analysis, global warming could afflict up to 2.25 million more Americans with kidney stones by 2050. Kidney stones are primarily caused by dehydration and low urine volume, which will be aggravated by global warming (New Scientist 7/14/08).

Increased Fires Due to Global Warming. According to scientists, global warming in the Southwest has caused more intense and longer droughts, leading to increased wild fires (San Francisco Chronicle 7/21/08). Already, this summer, California has experience 2,000 wildfires. Between 1920 and 1980, wildfires burned an average of 5,000 square miles per year. Since 1980, that average has increased to 8,500. In the western US, the amount of forest area burned increased by 6.7 times (when comparing 1970 to 1986 and 1987 to 2003). And, in the past 30 years, the wildfire season has expanded by 78 days.

Global Warming Harming Moose and Wolves. Due to its isolated location, Isle Royale National Park has been an outstanding natural laboratory to study moose and wolves for 50 years. Unfortunately, there has been a decline in both species, which scientists are attributing to global warming (Washington Post 7/21/08). In 1980 there were 2,500 moose; now there are only 650. As one scientist noted, "moose are creatures of the north country who like it cold. If it gets warmer, they won't fare well (due to ticks and eating less when it is hot)…and wolves will go extinct before moose do, and their extinction could definitely be caused by climate change."

From Marine Vertebrates to Invertebrates. After analyzing 50 years of fish trawl data from marine waters adjacent to Rhode Island, researchers have found that the fish community has shifted from vertebrate species to invertebrates, and from bottom feeding species (benthic) to species that feed higher in the water column (pelagic) (United Press International 7/1/08). Also, larger, cool-water species have declined while smaller, warmer-water species have increased.

Warmer Waters Harming Oysters and Coral. Oyster larvae are experiencing massive die-offs due to the bacteria Vibrio tubiashii. "The Vibrio blooms appear to be linked to warmer waters in estuaries and the oxygen-starved ‘dead zones' that have showed up this decade off the coast of Oregon and Washington, researchers said" (Los Angeles Times 7/13/08). In a separate 569-page analysis, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has concluded that almost half of the coral reef ecosystems in US territorial waters are in poor or fair condition, due in large part to warmer marine temperatures (Time 7/7/08). According to NOAA's deputy assistant secretary for oceans and atmosphere, since 2005 the Caribbean region has lost at least 50% of its coral, primarily due to warmer waters.

Judge Stops Coal Plant in Georgia. For the first time, a court has applied the US Supreme Court's April 2007 ruling to an industrial plant. A Superior Court Judge held that a coal-fired power plant in Georgia cannot go forward unless it limits the amount of carbon dioxide it emits (Environment News Service 6/30/08).

Western Climate Initiative Issues Draft Cap-and-Trade Plan. Seven Western State and four Canadian provinces have proposed a draft cap-and-trade plan (to see it, click here).

Key International News

G-8 Nations Agree on Emission Reductions

The Group of Eight (G-8) -- representing the leaders of the US, Canada, Japan, Russia, Great Britain, France, Germany and Russia -- agreed to adopt a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050 (for a copy of the statement, click here; Washington Post 7/9/08). No baseline or interim targets were set.

• Developing Countries. Numerous developing countries including China, Brazil and India challenged developed countries to reduce their emission by more than 80% by 2050 (BBC 7/9/08).
• Reaction. There were diverse reactions to the agreement (New York Times 7/10/08; AFP 7/9/08; Associated Press 7/9/08).
• G-16. Also, there was a 16-nation "statement" on climate change (BBC 7/9/08). The statement did not include targets, but did note that "climate change is one of the great global challenges of our time."

Positive Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, and Other Developments

• British Program Results in Meaningful Cuts in Energy Usage. An energy saving trial (called "Green Streets") involving 64 households across eight cities organized by British Gas and monitored by the think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research "found that families cut their carbon emissions by a fifth….Some households cut the amount of gas they consumed by 50%" (Guardian 7/23/08). As the managing director of British Gas noted, "Reducing energy consumption is the single most important thing households can do to reduce bills and cut emissions."
• Samso, Denmark – an Energy Transformation Story. In an inspiring story in The New Yorker, Elizabeth Kolbert examines the renewable energy transformation of a Danish island called Samso (New Yorker 7/7/08). "In the late nineteen-nineties…most Samsingers heated their houses with oil, which was brought in on tanker. They used electricity…much of which was generated by burning coal….Then, quite deliberately, the residents of the island set about changing this. They formed energy cooperatives and organized seminars on wind power. They removed their furnaces and replaced them with heat pumps…and by 2005 it (Samso) was producing from renewable sources (primarily wind and biomass) more energy than it was using."
• Massive Wind Farm Approved. The Scottish government approved Europe's biggest onshore wind farm, "capable of powering 320,000 homes" (Times 7/21/08).

New or Expanded Threats – Causes and Impacts

Many scientific studies were published this month examining new climate change threats and impacts.

• Flat-screen TVs and Computers. Scientists announced that a synthetic chemical commonly used in flat screen TVs and computers, nitrogen trifluoride, is a powerful greenhouse gas – 17,000 more potent than carbon dioxide, with an atmospheric life of 550 years (Los Angeles Times 7/8/08).
• Mountain Pine Beetle. In British Columbia, the mountain pine beetle has now killed over half of the lodgepole pine forest in the middle of the province – "an area larger than England" (Economist 7/3/08). The infestation can be seen from space. "Recent British Columbian winters have not been cold enough to kill the beetles." The beetle is now in Alberta.
• Co-infection in Lions. Scientists have linked two major lion die-offs to climate change, which enhanced droughts and flooding (National Geographic 6/25/08). The resulting "co-infection, or synchronization of the diseases, caused the mass die-offs."

In Brief – Other International News of Note

Moving Species. Should endangered species be moved to new areas in response to global warming; in other words, should there be "assisted colonization?" A group of scientists believes that under certain circumstances the answer is "yes," and has published a framework for making this decision (Scientific American 7/17/08). The moves would be restricted to the "same broad biogeographic region." Some oppose this approach.

World Bank Establishes Climate Change Funds. The World Bank has established two climate change funds totaling $5 billion. The Clean Technology Fund will be used to assist developing countries employ clean energy technologies; and the Strategic Climate Fund will be used to assist disadvantaged countries adapt to climate change (Reuters 7/1/08).

Pope Calls for Action. Pope Benedict stated that we need to "wake up consciences" on global warming as part of "our responsibilities toward Creation," and that "we have to give impulse to rediscovering our responsibility and to finding an ethical way to change our way of life" (Associated Press 7/12/08). Pope Benedict also said that politicians and experts must be "capable of responding to the great ecological challenge and to be up to the task of this challenge."

Upcoming Events and Other Announcements

August 7

• What: "Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty," lecture by Daniel Lerch
• When: 7pm
• Where: East High Auditorium, Anchorage
• More Info: Author Daniel Lerch, program manager with the Post Carbon Institute, discusses his guidebook on peak oil (the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached) and global warming, written for people who work with and for local governments in the United States and Canada.

August 9

• What: Alaska Renewable Energy Fair
• When: 11am-9pm
• Where: Memorial Block, Delaney Park Strip, Anchorage
• More Info: Listen to live music and learn about developing Alaska's vast renewable energy resources at the annual street fair sponsored by Renewable Energy Alaska Project (REAP). For schedule, click here.

September 24 - 27

• What: "Seeking Balance in a Changing North," the Fifth Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum (NRF)
• Where: Anchorage Museum, Anchorage, Alaska
• More Info: The event is being organized by the NRF, together with the 5th NRF Host Organizing Committee representing the Office of the Governor of Alaska, Office of the Mayor of Anchorage, US Arctic Research Commission, Inuit Circumpolar Council, Institute of the North, University of Alaska Anchorage, Alaska Native Science Commission, The Northern Forum, Chickaloon Village Traditional Council, Anchorage Museum of History and Art, Cinza Research, and Anchorage Convention & Visitors Bureau. For on-line registration and other information, click here.

October 17 - 19

• What: "Bioneers in Alaska: Creating Sustainable Communities"
• Where: UAA
• More Info: Practical, cutting-edge solutions for restoring the Earth and its people, presented by the 5th annual conference of Bioneers in Alaska. For more information, go to http://www.sustainak.org.

November 7 - 9

• What: 12th Annual Sitka WhaleFest: "A Celebration of our Diverse and Abundant Marine Wildlife"
• Where: Various Sitka locations
• More Info: For schedule and symposium presenters, go to http://www.sitkawhalefest.org.

Thank you for continuing to be part of the solution.

With hope and determination,
Deborah