Global Warming News from Alaska - October 31, 2006
Reporting from the Front Line
Dear Friends,
It has been a very hot month for global warming news in Alaska. The evidence for climate change and its significant impacts continues to mount: dramatic pink salmon declines, disappearance of ponds, northern movement of fish, and earlier river ice losses. Fortunately, public awareness, candidate awareness, and actions by critically effected groups are also increasing. As highlighted below, over 71% of Alaskans think that global warming is a serious threat to the people of Alaska.
Internationally, economics took center stage with three reports concluding that the economic benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are great, while the costs of inaction are catastrophic.
Because global warming impacts are indeed scary, it is appropriate that this monthly report is coming out on Halloween. Fortunately, we can and must act to avert catastrophic changes.
Alaska Global Warming News - The Latest Evidence and Developments
Very Low Pink Salmon Harvests Tied to Hotter Temperatures
The pink salmon harvest in Southeast Alaska was dramatically lower than predicted in 2006. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) had forecast a purse seine catch of 52 million. According to preliminary ADF&G numbers the actual harvest was only 11.4 million, which was 40 million less than predicted.
- The management director of ADF&G's Juneau area commercial fisheries "said the low run was caused in large part by the warm temperatures of 2004, when the parents of this season's mature fish would have been affected." (Anchorage Daily News, 10/2/06).
- Because pink salmon have the shortest lifecycle of any salmon species (only two years), they are the first indicators of the impacts of global warming.
Smaller and Fewer Ponds in Alaska's Subarctic Boreal Region Because of Warming
In a four year study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research this month, scientists from the University of Alaska announced a substantial decline in the size and number of closed-basin ponds in interior Alaska. The analysis examined 50 years of satellite imagery from eight study areas in subarctic Alaska, covering more than 10,000 ponds.
- Between 5 and 54% of the ponds disappeared in the studied areas. All sites also showed a reduction in the area of closed ponds between 4 and 31%. (Journal of Geophysical Research 10/10/06)
- The research and analysis "indicates that these landscape-level changes in ponds are associated with recent climate warming in Alaska" (Institute of Arctic Biology, News Release 10/12/06)
- According to lead author, Dr. Brian Riordan, the study "will allow land managers to stop speculating about possible water body loss and begin to address the implications of this loss."
- The study confirms reports of disappearing and shrinking ponds from Native elders and others and has many ramifications including adverse impacts on migratory birds.
Alaska Gubernatorial Candidates Provide Positions on Global Warming
The Anchorage Daily News (ADN) asked the three leading candidates for governor: "What role does state government have, if any, in addressing global warming and climate change?" (Anchorage Daily News 10/22/06). The election is November 7.
- Sarah Palin: "We need to analyze the potential economic costs, needs and opportunities associated with climate change. Let's be cautious in how we react -- to make sure we don't overreact. The Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission is supposed to assess the situation and issue a report on March 1, 2007. This is a good start.”
- Andrew Halcro: "A big role. Global climate change will impact Alaska more than any other state due to our dependency on our natural resources. Changes in fisheries, herd migration patterns and ice floes will all have dramatic impacts unless we're ahead of the curve."
- Tony Knowles: "Alaska should be a model in addressing global warming as it bears the brunt of climate change. Our university can become an international research center analyzing the causes of and recommending ways to deal with the impacts of these changes. This will bring direct economic and social benefits to Alaskans."
AFN Passes Global Warming Resolution
On October 28, the Alaska Federation of Natives (AFN) unanimously passed a strong, two page global warming resolution. With more than 4,000 in attendance at their annual meeting, AFN declared among other findings and conclusions that:
- "Climate-related changes to the weather, food sources, and local landscapes undermine the social identity and cultural survival of Alaska Natives..."
- "As stated in the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, there is international scientific consensus that carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gasses released into the atmosphere have a profound warming effect on the Earth's climate."
- "Unpredictable weather, snow, and ice conditions make travel and traditional hunting and fishing practices more hazardous, thus endangering our lives."
- NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that AFN and all of our Alaska Native leadership "urge the Alaska Congressional delegation, the United States Congress and the President of the United States to move forward on a national, mandatory program to reduce climate change pollution and promote the development and adoption of renewable energy and energy efficient technologies within a timeframe that prevents irreversible harm to public health, the economy and the environment."
US Bering Sea Fisheries Moving Into Russian Waters Because of Global Warming
Alaska's Bering Sea produces approximately half of the fish harvested in US waters, and most of the catch consists of pollock. According to oceanographer Dr. Grebmeier, warming waters are creating a northward migration of marine life on an unprecedented scale. (Marketplace, "Frozen Assets" 10/26/06).
- Recent surveys have measured the first decrease in US pollock stocks in six years.
- Pollock and snow crab are beginning to migrate to cooler, northern waters, including Russian waters.
Nenana Ice Classic Provides Further Evidence of Global Warming
Since 1917, one of Alaska's favorite early-spring activities is betting on when the Tanana River will break up. Using a special 26 foot, five-legged tripod that is placed on the ice on the river, the exact time of break up is measured when the cabled tripod trips a connected clock tower.
- According to two researchers from the Geophysical Institute, between 1917 and the early 1960's, there was no long term change in the break up data. Since the early 1960s, however, the average break up date is now 10 days earlier. (UAF Sun Star 10/24/06)
- In general the break up data correlated with periods of prolonged warm or cool air.
Commissioners Named to State Climate Impact Assessment Commission and First Meeting Announced
In May, the Alaska State legislature created the "Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission." Among other responsibilities, the Commission is required to hold 8 hearings throughout the state to "assess the current and potential effects of climate warming trends on the citizens, natural resources, public health and economy of the state." (See full text of bill.)
- Recently, the legislature announced the 11 members of the commission and the first meeting date. The commission's first meeting is November 14th in Juneau between 1 and 4 pm.
- The members are: Rep. Reggie Joule, Rep. Ralph Samuels, Sen. Don Olson, Sen. Gary Stevens, Bob Pawlowski, Dr. Lance Miller, Stephanie Madsen, Dennis Nottingham, Caleb Pungowiyi, Michael Hurley, and John Shively.
- In related news, the Arctic Council Ministerial requested the Senior Arctic Officials and the Arctic Council working groups “to continue supporting, analyzing and synthesizing Arctic climate research, including the gathering and compilation of indigenous and local knowledge of the effects of climate change, so that the exchange of expertise at the global level through the IPCC can better reflect unique Arctic conditions and that global decision-making can take Arctic needs into account.”
Major Alaska Poll on Global Warming Released
A large, statewide poll on global warming reveals that Alaskans are confident that global warming is occurring, that it is causing significant changes, that it is having adverse impacts, and that it is a serious future threat. (See full poll Leiserowitz & Craciun 2006.)
- 81% of Alaskans are convinced that global warming is happening with 43% of Alaskans being completely convinced and 38% being mostly convinced.
- Most Alaskans believe that global warming in Alaska, among other impacts, is already causing or accelerating the loss of sea ice (83%), melting permafrost (82%), coastal erosion (74%) and forest fires (72%).
- 71% of Alaskans think that global warming is a serious threat to people in Alaska; and 76% of Alaskans think that global warming is a serious threat to plants and animals.
- 81% of Alaskans favor having the federal government regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
- 63% of Alaskans trust environmental organizations to tell the truth about global warming (compared to 23% for corporations, 29% for Alaskan politicians, 40% for religious organizations, 82% for scientists, and 86% for family and friends).
AkCS Website Featured on Horizon Solutions Site
The Horizon Solutions Site is featuring an article about Alaska Conservation Solutions' web site. If you have not already looked at www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com to calculate your carbon footprint and find out easy ways to reduce your carbon emissions, we hope you will take this opportunity to do so.
Key National News
Pacific Northwest Winters to Be Much Wetter if Global Warming Continues
According to a University of Washington scientist, Pacific Northwest winters will be getting wetter, affecting Alaska, British Columbia, Washington and western Oregon.
- As noted in the October 13 online edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letter, the storms will also be getting more intense and damaging.
- Using state of the art computer capabilities, Dr. Slathe predicts a 5 to 15% increase in Washington and Oregon rain and a 10 to 20% increase in Alaska rain 50 to 100 years from now, causing more flooding, erosion of salmon habitat, and infrastructure damage.
- "If we stabilized emissions, these scenarios have much less of an impact on the later half of the century...(avoiding) the worst parts are still up to us." observes Dr. Slathe. (Associated Press 10/19/06.)
Northeast Climate Impact Assessment Released
A group of experts, including the Union of Concerned Scientists, released a study demonstrating the relationship between future emissions and the severity of impacts on the Northeast.
- With a higher emissions scenario, for example, temperatures in the Northeast could increase by over 12 degrees F by the end of the century. This contrasts most starkly with the bottom end of the low emissions scenario which predicts an increase of less than 4 degrees F by the end of the century. (See chart)
- The report also compares future projected extreme summer temperatures under high emissions and low emissions scenarios. For New York City, for instance, a high emissions scenario would result in 72 days over 90 degrees F (currently there are 15 such days) and 25 days over 100 degrees F (currently there are 2). The report concludes that reducing emissions in the near term can significantly cut these dangerously hot days.
Ski Resorts Responding to Global Warming Threat
As the ski season nears, many ski resorts are increasing their efforts to combat global warming.
- The National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) has a "Keep Winter Cool" campaign that lists actions being taken nationwide. NSAA reports that 45 resorts purchase renewable power, with 16 acquiring all of their power from renewable sources.
- Ski Utah has also launched a website that describes why global warming is a threat, and what various resorts are doing to reduce their emissions. A recent economic study shows that the ski industry in Utah contributes about $811 million annually, with 3,000 employees. (Salt Lake Tribune 10/12/06)
Stop Global Warming Reaches 500,000 Participants
The Stop Global Warming Virtual March reached a milestone of 500,000 signatories. This carbon-free, national expression of concern is dedicated to demanding action to stop global warming now. If you have not already signed up, please do so at: www.stopglobalwarming.org. The website also has excellent recommendations for individual action such as "Ten Tips for an Earth Friendly Halloween".
Google Announces Two Global Warming Initiatives
Google will be installing a 1.6 megawatt solar-powered electricity system at its Silicon Valley headquarters that will be the largest solar installation on any corporate campus in the US. Previously, Microsoft started installing a 480 kilowatt solar system. (Mongabay.com 10/17/06)
Google also has launched a new initiative called the Global Warming Student Speakout, which gives students a chance in a classroom setting to brainstorm strategies for fighting global warming, and then have their ideas published in a full-page ad in the Washington Post.
Key International News
Stern Economic Warning: The Bad and the Good
In a stunning 700 page report commissioned by the British government, the former chief economist at the World Bank (Sir David Stern) predicts dire economic consequences if we do not act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the report also concludes that the costs of reducing emissions is relatively small and investing in less energy intensive technologies will stimulate the global economy.
- The report states: “Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in the century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.” (Reuters 10/29/06)
- The report concludes: “The evidence gathered by the review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.” (Reuters 10/29/06)
Another Economic Study Concludes that the Costs of Inaction will Be Trillions of Dollars
Another study issued in October notes that failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could cost $20 trillion a year by 2100 (Tufts University 10/11/06). These economic costs do not incorporate all of the substantial intangible costs of global warming such as extinctions and social relocations.
The report concludes: If nothing is done to reduce emissions, after 2050 average temperatures will continue rising into the much more dangerous zone beyond 2 degrees. Agricultural losses, disruption of essential water supplies, health impacts, and ecosystem damages will rapidly worsen in every region, as will the likelihood of a global climate catastrophe. Vigorous action now...is essential in order to ...hold long-term damages to a survivable level."
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Worth Billions
In a separate study commissioned by Shell, analysts concluded that responding to the economic opportunities associated with reducing carbon emissions represents a business opportunity of over 30 billion pounds in the next decade to British companies alone.
According to Lord Oxburgh, chair of Shell Springboard, "The urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions offers opportunities to the nimble." (Shell 10/12/06)
Global Warming Linked to Deadly Infectious Disease in Frogs
In a study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, researchers disclosed a correlation between significant warming in Spain between 1976 and 2002 and the emergence of a deadly fungal disease that infects amphibians' skin.
- Because of this fungal disease, the previously thriving common midwife toad is now virtually eliminated from the area studied.
- According to Dr. Fisher: "This is a wake up call that we are losing biodiversity fast. Climate change appears to be changing patterns of disease and previously resistant species are becoming highly infected and even, in a number of cases, becoming extinct...You can't overstate how serious this pathogen is - it is the worst infectious disease ever recorded among vertebrates in terms of the number of species impacted, and its propensity to drive them to extinction." (Imperial College 10/25/06)
Other Current Global Warming Impacts
Recent developments indicate that global warming is causing:
Upcoming Events and Other Announcements
- November 1, Global Warming Citizens Action Meeting at the Alaska Center for the Environment, 807 G Street, Suite 100 from 6-8 pm. More info or RSVP: clare@akcenter.org.
- November 14, Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission hearing, Juneau, location TBA.
- November 15, Carbon Disclosure, Socially Responsible Investing and Renewable Energy Teleconference, sponsored by American Council on Renewable Energy and the American Bar Association, 12:00 -1:30 EDT. (For more information click here.)
- November 29, Oral Arguments before the US Supreme Court in case regarding whether CO2 should be regulated under the Clean Air Act, Washington DC.
- December 6, noon and 7pm, Alaska Conservation Solutions Global Warming Power Point Training, Anchorage, Location TBA.
- February 12-15, Alaska Forum on the Environment, Global Warming Track, Anchorage, Alaska.
Closing Comments
As we learn more about the environmental, economic, and social costs of global warming, we can either sink into despair or rise to action. We can and must do the latter with increased knowledge and conviction. We and our leaders must act. Thank you again for being part of the solution.
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