Global Warming News from Alaska
November 30, 2006
Reporting from The Front Line

Dear Friends,

As the month of November comes to an end, it is only appropriate that we examine several developments for which we can be thankful.

First and foremost, as discussed below, the November election sets a dramatically different – and very positive stage – for addressing global warming in our nation’s capitol. Not surprisingly, global warming itself was an important issue in the election.

In Alaska, there are also several positive developments to report, especially on the local government front. These arise against the backdrop, of course, of additional adverse impacts that we must report and understand. Even though it is the holiday season, global warming is not taking a vacation, but neither are people and organizations deeply concerned about this life-threatening issue.

Alaska Global Warming News - The Latest Evidence and Developments

Alaska Local Governments Speak Out Against Global Warming

Recently, the Alaska Municipal League, the Homer City Council, and the Fairbanks North Star Borough passed important global warming resolutions.

• Alaska Municipal League. Representing 140 local governments, the Alaska Municipal League (AML) unanimously passed a “Policy on Global Climate Change” at its annual meeting, which states that: “The threat of global climate change is real and is accelerating at an alarming rate” (11/17/06).
• The Policy also proclaims: “We accept our collective responsibility to undertake reasonable and effective initiatives for energy conservation and to support development of alternative renewable and clean energy resources. We also believe that by implementing these strategies we will save our municipalities money and establish a long-term, sustainable and secure locally-generated energy future for our state.” 
• The Policy concludes by calling for federal action: “Recognizing the seriousness of increased climate change to Alaska’s municipalities, AML also calls upon Congress and the president to enact legislation establishing a mandatory, market-based approach to limiting greenhouse gas emissions.”
• Homer. On November 27th, the Homer City Council passed a Resolution establishing a Global Warming Task Force. The Task Force is responsible for making recommendations by December of 2007 regarding “methods the City can employ to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases” as well as mitigating the impacts of climate change on the “City’s economy, infrastructure and future development” (Resolution 06-141).
• Fairbanks. In the Fairbanks North Star Borough Resolution, the Assembly acknowledged that increased global warming is reducing the quality of life for residents of the Borough, “negatively impacting Interior Alaska as a visitor destination”, and “costing million of dollars for repair and lowering the value of the tax base for municipalities”. The resolution also commends the economic benefits of reducing greenhouse gases and using renewable energy sources.
• Finally, the resolution “urges the Alaska Legislature and the United States Congress to move forward on programs to cap or reduce greenhouse gas emissions” and take other mitigation, research, and adaptation steps (Resolution 2006-39 10/12/06).

Polar Bear Cubs Declining and Lower Estimate of Total Population Numbers in the Southern Beaufort Sea

In a 30-page paper published by USGS based on extensive, long-term studies, three leading polar bear scientists concluded that:

• The survival rate for first year polar bear cubs in the southern Beaufort Sea (north of Alaska and Canada) has dropped significantly – from 0.61 per adult female between 1967-89 to 0.25 per adult female between 1990-2006 (Regehr, Amstrup, Stirling 2006). See also Associated Press story.
• Skull measurements of both first year cubs and adult males were also statistically significantly smaller.
• The current population of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears is now estimated to be only 1,526. This is down from two previous estimates, using different methodologies, of 1,800 (in 1986) and 2500 (in the late ‘90s).
• The report notes that recent reports of polar bear drownings and deaths from starvation are unprecedented.
• In related news, the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Polar Bear Specialist Group Proceedings are now available, and conclude that five populations of polar bears are declining: southern Beaufort Sea, Western Hudson Bay, Norwegian Bay, Kane Basin, and Baffin Bay (See: pbsg.npolar.no). In 2001, they only concluded that one population was declining.
• Notes Andrew Derocher, head of the Polar Bear Specialist group, “Without stabilizing the climate by taking serious and urgent action on climate change, I don’t see a future for polar bears at all”  (IPS 11/21/06).

NOAA Issues “State of the Arctic Report”, Updating Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Assessing data primarily from 2000 through the winter of 2006, a group of 20 prominent scientists have concluded in “State of the Arctic Report” that:

• Sea ice continues to decrease in both the summer and the winter, “marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002.”
• “Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased” from global warming related drought and disease, while the tundra greened from global warming enhanced shrub growth.
• Permafrost temperatures continue to increase.
• “Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution towards this increase.”
• Going forward, shifts in the Arctic Oscillation index (from positive/neutral to negative, and thus from low to high Arctic atmospheric pressures) and El Nino/La Nina, will have some potential very short term cooling impacts (NOAA, 10/06).

Meters Help Reduce Energy Consumption

Last spring, the village of St. George installed new, in-house electric meters that allow residents to monitor closely their energy use with easy-to-read digital numbers. The meters also require prepayment (Anchorage Daily News 11/10/06).

• As a result, some families have cut their energy use in half. One household, for example, started using compact fluorescent light bulbs, eliminated a fax machine, and reminded each other to turn out lights. Homeowners can watch consumption rates decrease every time they turn off and unplug a device.
• Overall, village power use has dropped by 15% since the meters were installed in 40 homes last spring.

In Brief: Other Alaska Global Warming Items of Note.

• Ice-Dependent Species Paper Available. Written by Stacey Marz, an outstanding and comprehensive paper documenting the status of ice dependent species (such as walruses and ring seals) is now available and can be downloaded from our website (click here).
• Sarah Palin Elected Governor; Changes in the State Legislature. Sarah Palin was elected Governor. With respect to global warming, in her questionnaire for Alaska Conservation Voters she stated, “While I am unsure about the scientific evidence, it is prudent to address this issue.” The Democrats picked up one seat in the State Senate and three seats in the State House. The Senate reorganized, and the majority now consists mostly of Democrats, with Democrats holding half of the Senate committee chairmanships.
• Bering Sea Global Warming Article Summarizes Many Concerns. An excellent article about the Bering Sea, published originally in the Seattle Times and re-printed in the Anchorage Daily News (11/5/06), observes: “the nation’s richest ocean ecosystem is in the midst of a major upheaval, and scientists suspect global warming is at least partly to blame.”  Snow crab catches have declined 85% in six years along with other crab decreases; and crab populations have shifted northward. Yellowfin sole and Greenland turbot catches have been dropping, in addition to declines in fur seals and seabirds. Walrus pups are being abandoned. The intense warming between 2000 and 2005 does not fit any historic pattern; and even as we enter a negative Arctic Oscillation period (see article above), this will not reverse warming, it will only “slow the rate of warming” according to Dr. James Overland of NOAA.
• Gulf of Alaska Waters Warmer and Less Salty. In a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, Dr. Royer and Dr. Grosch report that water column temperatures in the northern Gulf of Alaska areas examined have increased more than 0.8 degrees C and become more stratified (8/18/06). Noting that the northern Gulf of Alaska contains the largest freshwater discharge system in North American (62% greater than the Mississippi River discharge), the paper also observes that this coastal region contains the third largest ice fields in the world. Accelerated melting of this ice is having a significant impact.
• Interfaith Power and Light Opens Alaska Office. The faith-based organization Interfaith Power and Light, which focuses on global warming, has opened an Alaska office under the directorship of Rev. Paul K. Klitzke. Rev Klitzke just published an outstanding Opinion piece in the Anchorage Daily News stating: “We must care for that which God has created because we know that it is an extension of his divinity…Human-caused global warming is threatening creation.” See entire OpEd: Anchorage Daily News 11/28/06.

Alaska Conservation Solutions (AkCS) Welcomes Mary Walker and Announces Power Point Training

When you call Alaska Conservation Solutions, you will likely now hear the voice of Mary Walker, the newest addition to our staff. Our Environmental Advocacy Coordinator, Mary has her Masters from the University of Idaho, and has most recently worked for the Bureau of Land Management in Fairbanks and Coldfoot.

• Mary had an outstanding Letter to the Editor on global warming published in the Anchorage Daily News on November 26.
• PowerPoint Training. On December 5 and 6, Alaska Conservation Solutions will be conducting trainings on presenting the Alaska Global Warming PowerPoint. Interested individuals can either attend in person in Anchorage or connect telephonically. If you are interested in participating, please let Mary know by either calling (929-9370) or e-mailing mwalker@alaskaconservationsolutions.net. 

Key National News

November Elections Represent Turning Point for Global Warming

Influenced by global warming, the dramatic November election results will re-shape global warming efforts in Congress.

According to Zogby International, “half of Americans who voted in the mid-term elections said concern about global warming made a difference in who they voted for.” (Zogby Press Release 11/16/06). This was especially true for Hispanic and younger voters, and increasingly for religious voters.

• Based on a poll surveying 19,356 adults, Zoby also found that 58% of voters agreed that their elected officials should make combating global warming a high priority and 75% said Congress should pass legislation promoting renewable and alternative energy.
• The Chairmanship of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will shift from James Inhofe (R-Okla.), who has repeatedly called global warming a hoax, to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who considers global warming a significant economic and environmental threat. It is also possible that Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) will prevent Sen. Inhofe from becoming ranking Minority Chair. Senator Boxer has announced that she will “roll out a pretty in-depth set of hearings on global warming” (Washington Post 11/18/2006).
• In a letter to President Bush, Senators Boxer, Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) pledged to pass an effective system of mandatory limits on greenhouse gases” and asked President Bush to work with them (See letter).

Energy Firms Increasingly Acknowledge Global Warming and Likelihood of Regulation – But There are Major Exceptions

As described in an excellent article in the Washington Post (11/25/06), many energy firms are accepting the reality of global warming and the probability of regulation. For example:

• President of Shell Oil Company, John Hofmeister stated: “From Shell’s point of view, the debate is over. When 98 percent of scientists agree, who is Shell to say, ‘Let’s debate the science’?” “We need a national approach to greenhouse gases.”
• Duke Energy’s vice president for environmental policy noted: “If we had our druthers, we’d already have carbon legislation passed…Our viewpoint is that it’s going to happen.”
• However some other companies are still moving forward with massive emission intensive projects. TXU Corporation is planning on building 11 new coal-fired power plants, increasing their emissions by almost 80 million tons per year.

US Emissions Continue to Rise

According to the Energy Information Administration, US Emissions of greenhouse gases increased by 0.6% in 2005 (Report 11/14/06).

• The US is now emitting 7.147 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, and 83% of those emissions are from burning fossil fuels.
• US greenhouse gas emissions have increased 17 percent since 1990, which is the base year for the Kyoto treaty.

What Happened to the Hurricane Season?... and Other Weather Anomalies

ABC news has presented a helpful analysis of the hurricane season and other weather anomalies (11/16/06). Appropriately, the article starts with Alaska’s Charles Wohlforth’s quote: “Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is about weather; the ratio of shorts to long underwear in the drawer is about climate.”

• The North Atlantic hurricane season was quiet this year because of La Nina and cloudier skies, however the storms in the Pacific were intense.
• As daily and monthly temperatures demonstrate, there is natural variability in the system. But, as Dr. Mark Serreze points out, “The long-term averages are decidedly toward a warming planet.”

In Brief – Other National News of Note

• Global Warming Lawsuit Filed. A coalition of three environmental groups sued the Bush Administration for failing to comply with the Global Change Research Act of 1990. Under that law, the federal government was required to submit in 2004 a national assessment analyzing the effects of climate change on various environmental, economic and social systems. The plaintiffs are the Center for Biological Diversity, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth.
• Young Evangelicals Express Deep Concerns About Global Warming. Representing more than 1,500 young evangelicals from 41 states, a group of college students from Christian colleges presented a signed statement in Washington DC entitled, “Cooling Our Future: A Declaration by Young Evangelicals on Climate Change.” The declaration expressed their concern about global warming as “the degradation of God’s creation.” According to one of the students, taking action “is a moral issue, and the faithful expression of God’s people” (Christian Post 11/19/2006).
• Carbon Neutral. As noted on Public Radio's program The World: "Each year, the New Oxford American Dictionary announces a new word that captures the spirit of the year; this year (2006) the new phrase is ‘carbon neutral’" (November 22, 2006).

Key International News

Global Warming Damaging Species Worldwide

In a careful review of 866 scientific studies, Dr. Camille Parmesan has documented that global warming is causing extinctions and population declines in species throughout the world at rates more alarming than previously, cumulatively determined (Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 2006). Note: We encourage you to review this entire paper.

• The paper concludes “Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species…have been the first groups in which whole species have gone extinct due to recent climate change…Although evolutionary responses have been documented (mainly in insects), there is little evidence that observed genetic shifts are of the type or magnitude to prevent predicted species extinctions.”
• In a different report, the World Wildlife Fund estimates that unchecked climate change could result in bird species extinction rates of up to 72% in some areas. Fortunately, the report concludes that the more extreme scenarios of extinctions can be prevented if emissions are substantially reduced (Bird Species and Climate Change November 2006).

Diseases Linked to Global Warming

Numerous health experts gathered in Nairobi to discuss the adverse impacts of global warming on health, including increasing epidemics of malaria and water-bourne diseases in Africa, cerebral-cardiovascular conditions in China, and heat wave deaths in Europe (Reuters and Associated Press 11/14/06).  

• According to the Officer in charge of public health at Kenya’s Ministry of Health, malaria is now a major health problem in the highlands of western Kenya because of global warming. A unit of temperature increase has resulted in a 10-fold increase in mosquito density. A World Health Organization hygiene specialist noted that new cases of malaria have also been reported in Turkey and Azerbaijan. There has also been an increase of between 5 and 10 % in salmonella bacteria for every one-degree rise in weekly temperatures in Europe, which causes typhoid fever and other food borne illnesses.
• China has experienced increased mortality (between 173 and 685 deaths per million residents) from strokes and heart disease under warmer conditions, noted an official from China’s Institute for Environmental Health. Projected over China’s 1.3 billion population, this could amount to as many as 890,000 deaths/year.

United Nations Conference on Climate Change Inconclusive

Unfortunately, the Nairobi-based United Nations Conference on climate change failed to review progress made on Kyoto Protocol goals or create a timetable for future emission reductions beyond 2012 (when the Kyoto Protocol expires).

• The Bush Administration continued to oppose defined emission reductions.  
• Among the 6,000 attendees, there was a lot of discussion about how to aid nations suffering from the impacts of global warming. Economists from the World Bank estimated that it will cost billions of dollars for developing countries to address climate change. Currently, the Adaptation Fund only contains $3 million (New York Times 11/17/06).

In Brief – Other International News of Note

• Swedish Glaciers Melting Now Consistent with Global Warming. Scientists announced that for the last 6 years, glaciers in Sweden have been melting at a rate consistent with global warming models. Previously, some critics had used Sweden’s glaciers as an argument against global warming (Daily Telegraph 11/09/06).
• Methane Levels Stable Since 1998. On the good news front, methane levels have been relatively stable since 1998. Methane is the second most serious greenhouse gas. After significant growth from 1,520 ppb in 1978 to 1,767 ppb in 1998, methane has only increased to 1,772 ppb through 2005. As NOAA scientist Ed Dlugokencky observes, “Slower growth in methane buys us some time to find ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions” (Scientific American. Com 11/21/06).

Upcoming Events and Other Announcements

• November 30, Community Showing of Inconvenient Truth with Expert Panel, Schiable Auditorium, UAF, 6pm, Free admission.
• December 5, Global Warming PowerPoint Training I, Alaska Conservation Alliance, 810 N St. Suite 203, Anchorage, 7:00 -9:00 pm; More Info: mwalker@alaskaconservationsolutions.com, Please sign up as soon as possible.
• December 6, Global Warming PowerPoint Training II, Alaska Conservation Alliance, 810 N St. Suite 203, Anchorage, 11:30 -1:30 pm, More Info: mwalker@alaskaconservationsolutions.com,  Please sign up as soon as possible.
• December 6, Global Warming Citizens Action Meeting, Alaska Center for the Environment, 807 G Street, Suite 100, Anchorage, 6-9:00 pm, More Info: claire@akcenter.org.
• December 7 - 8, Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission Public Hearing University of Alaska, Fairbanks, time and exact location TBA.
• December 7, Sitka Global Warming Group, Harrigan Centennial Hall, 330 Harbor Drive, Sitka AK, Begins at 7:00 pm, More Info: soundsofalaska@yahoo.com.
• February 12 – 15, Alaska Forum on the Environment, Global Warming Track, Anchorage, Alaska, More Info: Click Here.  

As we celebrate this season, we can be thankful that so many concerned, talented, and committed individuals – like you – are addressing global warming on personal, local, state, national and/or international levels. Together, we are truly making progress.