Global Warming News from Alaska
July 31, 2007
Reporting from The Front Line

Dear Friends,

Alaska is on the front line of global warming; and that front line is eroding. Previous evidence has focused on shoreline erosion near communities like Shishmaref. Recently, scientists have identified substantial shoreline loss in northernmost Alaska that is flooding oil and gas infrastructure and valuable habitat. This evidence, combined with disappearing ancient lakes, accelerated glacial melting, heat waves, and more, underscore the need to take action. Fortunately, Alaska's two senators, together with others, have done just that. This is a very promising development, and provides an additional basis for hope and renewed determination.

Alaska and Polar Global Warming News – The Latest Evidence and Developments

Global Warming Enhanced Erosion of Alaska Shorelines Imperils Oil Infrastructure and Wildlife Habitat

The coastal map of Alaska is being redrawn by global warming, as lands and lakes are being lost to the sea. This month, USGS scientists published an important report entitled "Quantitative Remote Sensing Study Indicates Doubling of Coastal Erosion Rate in Past 50 Years along a Segment of the Arctic Coast of Alaska" (see study abstract) (also see Alaska Report 7/9/07 and sfgate.com 7/5/07).

• In the last 50 years, areas north of Teshekpuk Lake in northern Alaska have experienced as much as 3,000 feet (0.9 kilometers) of coastal erosion. Notably, the overall rate of erosion for the entire studied area doubled from 0.48 km²/year (during 1955-1985) to 1.08 km²/year (from 1985 – 2005).
• Lakes near the coast have been lost due to melting permafrost and greater wave exposure, resulting in initial lake drainage followed by marine flooding. (To see graphic photos and maps of this, click here). In describing the study, USGS notes "a 30 yr warming trend that has resulted in ice-pack shrinkage and deterioration of permafrost" (USGS website). USGS also observes that "the low-lying Arctic coastal plain north of Teshekpuk Lake hosts endangered and threatened species of waterfowl, is the calving grounds for large herds of caribou, and contains potentially significant petroleum resources."
• Speaking of petroleum, a significant article by Reuters reveals that the Bureau of Land Management has identified approximately 30 old oil exploration wells in northernmost Alaska that "need to be cleaned and plugged before the sea claims them" (Reuters 7/25/07). According to a BLM spokesperson, "Hopefully we'll get all of these wells before anything happens."
• In 2005 BLM had to do an emergency clean-up and well plug, after more than 300 feet of shoreline was lost in a few months. The well is now entirely underwater.
• Currently, at a different well, a waste pit on the east side of Teshekpuk Lake has been breached, and may be leaking pollutants into the lake.

Disappearing and Shrinking Ancient Ponds

After studying ponds in Nunavut for 24 years, Canadian researchers have released a study showing that some of these 6,000 year old ponds are completely drying up in the summer. Others are shrinking. The cause of these changes is increased evaporation from global warming. The sediments from these ponds demonstrate that they have been stable for several thousand years (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 7/2/07).

• "In the past, researchers like us have sometimes been accused of being alarmist when we discussed climate warming," noted Dr. Smol, co-author of the study and winner of Canada's top award for a scientist or engineer. "We now think we have been overly optimistic – the speed and magnitude of environmental changes are worse than even we imagined!" (Science Daily 7/4/07)
• These ponds can be critical hotspots of biodiversity and production for microorganisms, plants, and animals in an otherwise extreme terrestrial environment.

This study is consistent with the significant analysis completed by a group of University of Alaska scientists regarding the substantial shrinking and elimination of Alaska ponds (to see prior newsletter entry about the Alaska study, click here).

Accelerated Glacial Melting To Raise Sea Level Beyond Previous Predictions

According to an international team of scientists, the accelerated melting of glaciers and ice caps could add an additional 4 to 9.5 inches of sea level rise by 2100 (Science 7/19/07), (ENS 7/20/07), (NewScientist 7/19/07). Currently glaciers and ice caps contribute about 60% of all sea-level rise associated with melting ice.

• Tidewater glaciers are especially contributing to this accelerated melting. As the paper explains, Alaska's Columbia Glacier is illustrative. This glacier has decreased by approximately 9 miles since 1980 and thinned up to 1,300 feet.
• The scientists believe that current models underestimate the contributions from glaciers and ice caps, and, as Dr. Meier notes, "this is an appreciable adjustment."

Other Alaska and Arctic Developments and Items of Note

• Global Warming Lesson Plans. A group of 60 teachers participated in the Science Teacher Education Program at the University of Alaska's Geophysical Institute. The teachers developed lesson plans concerning global warming, which will be available for download at www.gi.alaska.edu/STEP. (See also Fairbanks Daily News Miner 7/18/07)
• Climate Change Calendar Available. The 2008 edition of the award-winning Alaska Coastal Calendar is now available. Visually stunning and filled with information, the theme of this 16-month calendar is the impact of climate change on Alaska and the Arctic. To order online, click here or phone (888) 789-0090.
• Kill A Watt. Want to measure and then reduce your electricity usage? AkCS recently purchased three "Kill A Watt EZ" energy meters and electricity cost calculators. In August, we will make the meters available for AkCS friends in Anchorage to use in your home or office.  The device measures the operating cost of any household appliance, in the same measurement units that your utility company charges (kilowatt/hour), and in real cost per day, week, month, or year. "Research shows that bringing energy out of the meter cupboard will give people the information they need to start making informed choices that will increase their energy efficiency and cut their energy bills, with reported savings ranging between 5% and 30%" (BBC 6/22/07).
• Polar Bear Denning Imperiled. In January, Reporting from the Frontline highlighted a study by USGS scientists, which described substantial polar bear denning dislocations from sea ice to land. Between 1985 and 1994, the percentage of dens on sea ice was 62%, but that percentage dropped to only 37% between 1998-2004 (to see previous monthly report entry click here). The actual paper was just published in the journal Polar Bear (San Francisco Chronicle 7/13/07). In recent years, with the melting of the Arctic ice cap increasing, the fall sea ice has been as far as 125 miles from shore. Scientists are concerned that the sea ice will retreat so far that the bears will not be able to swim across the expanse of water to reach land to den. "Right now, pregnant females…must wait up to a month longer than they did even 10 years ago for new sea ice to form so they can travel to denning areas on land," notes Dr. Steve Amstrup.

Alaska in the News

Among numerous July news stories and commentaries about Alaska and the Arctic not referenced above, we especially recommend the following:

• As reported in last month's newsletter, the Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission held their first rural hearing on June 28. A week after the hearing, the Arctic Sounder published an excellent article with outstanding photographs regarding the hearing (Arctic Sounder 7/5/07). The powerful photos, taken by an Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologist, show the newly reported, massive land slumps caused by global warming.
• For the Encyclopedia of Earth entry on global warming in Alaska, click here.
• The Anchorage Press published a lengthy, informative article about renewable energy potential in southcentral Alaska (Anchorage Press 6/28/07).
• Very often international reporters come to Alaska to report from global warming's front line. If you speak Finnish, you might want to review the front page story about climate change in Alaska from Finland's leading newspaper (Helsingin Sanomat 7/26/07).
• An interesting article discussing Alaska's potential engagement in the Western Regional Climate Action Initiative can be found at Fairbanks Daily News-Miner (7/11/07).

Key National News

Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 Introduced; Senators Murkowski and Stevens Co-sponsor

The Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 represents comprehensive, bi-partisan legislation that creates an economy-wide mandatory cap and trade system modeled after the successful U.S. Acid Rain Program. (To find the bill, the bill abstract, and other information from the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, click here) (New York Times 7/11/07; Anchorage Daily News 7/12/07; KTUU 7/11/07).

• Developed primarily by Senator Bingaman, the legislation targets greenhouse gas emission reductions to achieve 1990 levels by 2030; has a safety valve of $12 per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent; and sets forth a detailed methodology for distributing tradable emission allowances and the substantial revenues generated as a result. The revenues will go to fund such important purposes as: the development of renewable energy technologies, adaptation measures, assistance to low-income households; and agricultural sequestration.
• Upon the introduction of the bill, Senator Stevens stated: "There is little doubt that Alaskans are feeling the effects of climate change more than anyone else in our nation…this legislation would direct much-needed resources to Alaska to deal with the consequences of climate change" (Committee Press Release 7/11/07).
• Senator Murkowski emphasized that "In Alaska we have been feeling the impacts of a warming climate for decades. The permafrost is melting, Arctic ice is disappearing and wildlife habitat is changing."
• The legislation is supported by the AFL-CIO and several other unions, as well as numerous conservation organizations and companies. Some groups assert that the bill does not require sufficient carbon reductions. Senator Boxer "welcome(d)" the bill and stated, "I am optimistic that working together across party lines, we can pass strong global warming legislation in the Senate this year, and I believe Senator Bingaman's bill is an important contribution to that effort."

Numerous Dire, Insightful Global Warming Reports Released.

There were numerous reports issued this month which underscore the current and projected, costly impacts of global warming, including:

• Northeast. The Union of Concern Scientists issued a 145-page report describing the dramatic, negative impacts from global warming on nine states in the northeast (The Report; AP 7/13/07). Authored by 50 scientists, the report examines the impacts of climate change on the economy, health, tourism industry, coastline, weather, and agricultural production. Boston, for example, is projected to experience once-a-century flooding every year or two. Coastal flooding and erosion will cost billions; and the lobster fishery will be destroyed. There will be weeks of heat waves over 100 degrees in New York and the end of commercial skiing in New Hampshire. The report compares a high emission future versus a stabilized emission future (at 550 ppm). According to the director of science and policy at UCC, "The very character of the Northeast is at stake" (Reuters 7/12/07), but "the worst of the damage can be mitigated if we act soon" (Washington Post 7/11/07).
• Chesapeake Bay. According to the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, global warming is having clear, identifiable, adverse impacts on the Bay, and these problems will increase dramatically (Chesapeake Bay Report; Washington Post 7/20/07). The Bay's waters have risen about one foot in the last century and water temperature about 2 degrees since 1930. During prolonged warm period in 2005, massive tracts of eelgrass were killed by high temperatures. The President of the Foundation noted, "…we know that climate change will make the bay worse in the future."
• Cities Across the Nation. US Public Interest Research Group (USPIRG) released a report comparing temperatures for the years 2000-2006 with average temperatures between 1971-2000, from 255 weather stations. Every state is included. The report also highlights the problem of heat waves (USPIRG Report; Anchorage Daily News 7/27/07).
• Northwest Coastal Habitats. Focusing on eleven coastal habitats in Washington and Oregon, a report by the National Wildlife Federation reviews the serious impacts of rising sea-levels on beaches, tidal flats, marshes, and fish and wildlife (NWF Report; Corvallis Gazette-Times 7/24/07).
• National Parks. National Parks Conservation Association issued a report entitled "Unnatural Disaster: Global Warming and Our National Parks" (NPCA Report; Seattle Post-Intelligencer 7/19/07). The report emphasizes what is at risk, from the existence of Joshua trees in Joshua National Park, to the survival of the Everglades, to the continuation of glaciers in Glacier National Park; and asserts that the worst consequences can be avoid if appropriate action is taken. Notably, this year, in Yellowstone National Park hundreds of dead and dying fish have been found in association with the heat wave and decreased stream flows.

In Brief – Other National News of Note

Florida Sets Limits on Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Republican governor Charlie Crist signed three substantial executive orders regarding emission reductions, including calling for reductions in greenhouse gas emission to 2000 levels by 2017, to 1990 levels by 2025, and by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050 (Crist Press Release 7/16/07) (Reuters 7/13/07). He also called for electric companies to produce 20% of their power from renewable resources by 2020; sought adoption of California's new motor vehicle emission standard to reduce emissions by 25% by model year 2009; called for drafting a "climate change action plan"; sought energy efficient building standards; and signed cooperation agreements with Germany and Britain. Florida is the nation's fourth most populous state.

Grey Whales Thinning. According to a head researcher with the National Marine Fisheries Service, "grey whales are migrating later, not going as far north, and are producing fewer calves" (AFP 7/12/07). The explanation may be that global warming is adversely effecting the whales' summer feeding grounds in the Bering Sea. "Instead of looking plump coming off the summer months, they have noticeable depressions behind the head, with scapulas visible through the skin, and concave sections above the tail," the scientist further noted. This past winter only 100 calves were born in the San Ignacio lagoon, a drop from the 350 calve average in the early 1980's.

Bush Administration Officials Actively Opposed California Emission Laws. Systematically lobbying members of Congress and nine automobile-based state governors, the Bush Administration's transportation officials urged opposition to California's emission laws, which EPA is currently examining. At least 32 congressional offices were contacted (Associated Press 6/29/07).

US Forest Service Launches Offset Program. Together with the National Forest Foundation, the U.S. Forest Service is offering carbon offsets under the Carbon Capital Fund. According to the Forest Service, the country's 155 national forests offset about 10% of the emissions in the US. Forest Service scientists believe that by planting more trees and taking other actions to help restore public lands, this percentage can be increased to as much as 25% (Associated Press 7/25/07). The Fund is focusing on reforestation and afforestation.

Dandelions and Poison Ivy Thrive in Elevated Carbon Dioxide. In two unrelated experiments, scientists have demonstrated that global warming makes dandelions and poison ivy thrive (LA Times 7/18/07). At levels of CO₂ projected for 2100, dandelions will produce 32% more seed-carrying fruit, with longer hairs which improves the mobility of the seeds. In a new poison ivy study, a U.S. Department of Agriculture weed ecologist found that stems and leaves increased in mass up to 400 ppm of CO₂. "From what we've seen so far, all the weeds we have examined seem to respond much more to carbon dioxide than other species do," noted the government weed ecologist.

Key International News

It's Not the Sun

A definitive international study shows that global warming since 1985 has not been caused by an increase in solar radiation (BBC 7/10/07).

• Two European scientists demonstrated that solar activity peaked between 1985 and 1987, and warming since then cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, sunspot number or cosmic-ray intensity.
• "Over the past 20 years, all the trends in the sun that could have had an influence on Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures," the scientists wrote (Reuters 7/11/07).
• "This paper is the final nail in the coffin for people who would like to make the Sun responsible for present global warming," notes another climate scientist. (Nature 7/4/07).

Heat Waves and Flooding Damages Europe

Record breaking temperatures in various locations in Europe caused deaths, fires, and other serious problems (Reuters 7/27/07).

• Up to 500 individuals are estimated to have died in Hungary, while 33 Romanians perished (Associated Press 7/25/07). Temperatures reached 107 °F in Hungary.
• In Serbia, the temperatures soared to 109 °F, and the country battled 50 forest fires.
• In June, more than 35 people perished in Greece, Romania and Turkey when the temperatures reached 115 °F.
• England's very heavy rainfall certainly appears to be attributable to climate change (Independent 7/23/07).

In Brief – Other International News of Note

Military Role Projected to Change. In a report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, analysts predict that the military will be called upon in the future to respond to the impacts of global warming, such as extreme weather events like cyclones, flooding and bushfires; climate refugees; and increased illegal fishing (Australian 7/2/07). The report urges the Defense Department to set up a climate change section and explore the implications of global warming in the next Defense White Paper.

Australia To Create a Climate Change Corridor. Recognizing the need for plants and animals to move in response to global warming, Australia is creating a 1,740 mile climate "spine" on the country's east coast (Reuters 7/16/07).

Germany's Chancellor Stands Firm on Emission Cuts. Calling the battle against global warming as the "greatest challenge of the 21st century," Chancellor Merkel rejected criticisms of her ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions (Reuters 7/3/07).

Uganda's Coffee Crops Imperiled. According to a new report, an increase in temperature of 3.6 °F could destroy Uganda's entire coffee crop, which is already experiencing declines due to warmer weather. The coffee industry generates more than half of the country's revenue (National Geographic News 7/24/07).

Netherlands to Use Geothermal. The Hague intends to use geothermal heating to warm 4,000 houses and some industrial buildings (Associated Press 7/4/07). The floors will be equipped with underfloor heating from underground water that is 170 °F. The inhabitants who use this source of heat will be given a guarantee that their heating bills will be less than or equal to those using conventional heat.

High Carbon Lifestyle Does Not Bring Happiness. A recently released report concludes: "While Europe's (carbon) footprint has grown dramatically since the 1960's, levels of well-being have increased only at the margins. In some countries, subjective life-satisfaction even appears to have declined" (Independent 7/16/07). In Britain, for example, the carbon footprint per capita increased by 50% since 1961, but levels of satisfaction declined by 6%.

Upcoming Events and Other Announcements

August 2-3

• What: The Bike Friendly Sitka Coalition Meeting
• Where: Centennial Hall, Sitka, AK
• More Info: The meeting will be devoted to celebrating 7 recent successes and planning the largest per capita community bike ride in the history of Southeast Alaska. For more information call 966-8734 or 747-3665.

August 11

• What: Alaska Renewable Energy Fair sponsored by Renewable Energy Alaska Project and the Denali Commission
• Where: Anchorage Park Strip
• When: 11 am - 9 pm
• More Info: www.alaskarenewableenergy.org

August 11

• What: Household Electronics Recycling Event
• Where: South Anchorage High School, 13400 Elmore Road, Anchorage
• When: 10am - 6pm.
• More Info: Contact Green Star at 278-7827 or info@greenstarinc.org

August 14

• What: Alaska Conservation Solutions - Global Warming Workshop
• Where: Alaska Conservation Alliance office 810 N St., Suite 203 – Anchorage
• When: 11:30 am to 1:30 pm
• More Info: The purpose of the workshop is to have participants learn about the science and evidence surrounding global warming and ultimately to be able to give presentations to friends, family, congregations, co-workers, etc. Deborah Williams will be providing the training. All materials provided. If you are interested in participating or have questions, please contact Mary Walker @ (907) 929-9370 or by e-mail: mwalker@alaskaconservationsolutions.com

August 14

• What: FROM HOT WATER TO HYDROGEN - 2nd Annual Chena Hot Springs Renewable Energy and Sustainable Living Fair
• Where: Chena Hot Springs, Fairbanks
• When: 9am - 7pm
• More Info: Click here to download flyer

August 16

• What: ENERGY-EFFICIENCY TRAINING: VALUING ENERGY ENHANCEMENT PROJECTS & FINANCIAL RETURNS
• Where: UAA's Arts Building, Room 117, Anchorage, AK.
• When: 9:45am - 1pm.
• More Info: Presented by BOMA, UAA, and Green Star. For more information or to RSVP, contact Jean Marie at 278-7869 or jeanmarie@greenstarinc.org.

September 13-16

• What: Homer Energy Efficiency Symposium
• Where: Homer, AK
• More Info: TBA

September 27

• What: Innovations in Wildlife Conservation: Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on America's Wildlife
• Where: Washington DC
• More Info: The event will feature a symposium (see upcoming event below) on global warming and wildlife, expert panels and speakers on climate's impact on native wildlife and habitat, visits with key congressmen, and a celebratory event that will include awards highlighting excellence in wildlife conservation. To learn more visit http://www.defenders.org/about_us/innovations/index.php

September 27

• What: Poster Symposium: "Innovations in Wildlife Conservation: Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on America's Wildlife"
• Where: Washington DC
• More Info: Please address all questions to: poster@defenders.org. For more information and to submit an abstract please visit: www.defenders.org/innovations/symposium2007

October 19-21

• What: Fourth Annual Bioneers in Alaska Conference: a 3-day event that inspires and unifies
• Where: Anchorage, AK
• More Info: (907)373-0909, info@sustainak.org, www.sustainak.org, www.bioneers.org

October 28-30

• What: Circumpolar Housing Forum: Sustainable Northern Shelter in a World of Diminishing Resources
• Where: Fairbanks, Alaska
• When: All Day
• More Info: The Cold Climate Housing Research Center and the University of Alaska Fairbanks have partnered with other agencies and businesses concerned about the effects of climate change on housing in the circumpolar North to bring about this exciting new conference. Panel topics include: Building Science and Technology in the North, Energy Systems and Infrastructure, Appropriate Sustainable Design of Buildings and Communities, and Integration of Ideas and Development of Future Research. Visit http://www.cchrc.org/forum.html for more info about the Forum, including a schedule and registration information, or call 907-457-3454.

November 7-9

• What: Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference! The first-ever Behavior, Energy and Climate Change Conference ("BECC") is a national conference focused on understanding the behavior and decision-making of individuals and organizations and on using that knowledge to help accelerate our transition to an energy-efficient and low-carbon economy.
• Where: Sacramento, California
• More Info: The conference program and registration details will be announced soon on the conference web site at http://aceee.org/conf/07becc/07beccindex.htm

As the information in this monthly report demonstrates, progress is being made on several fronts, including legislation. Working together, we are making a difference. We can succeed.

With hope and determination,
Deborah

-->

Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
dlwilliams@gci.net
http://www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com/
907-929-9370

---

Your Subscription

[SUBSCRIPTIONS]